Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
