🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Participant Profited $436,000 from Wagers on Maduro's Downfall. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. An individual made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was publicly declared, raising questions about the possibility of profiting from non-public details of the US operation. Changing Odds in Wagers Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be out of power by the month's conclusion rose in the time leading up to Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been seized. A particular user, which joined the platform recently and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, profited a total of $nearly half a million from a starting bet of $32,537. The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Probability Spikes Before Public Statement Trading information shows that users put the odds of a political change at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event. Yet the odds had jumped to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and surged in the first hours of Saturday, pointing to a sharp shift in betting activity just before the social media post was made. "This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a bet based on inside information," said an industry expert. A handful of other traders also profited significant sums from predicting the capture. Legal Questions Emerges Elected officials are beginning to pay attention. A new rule introduced on the start of the week aims to prohibit government employees from making trades on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a bet. The Prediction Market Landscape Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in the past few years, with participants able to wager on everything from sports to politics. This sector were examined under the last presidential term. However it has experienced less resistance during the present political climate. Using confidential knowledge is against the law in the stock market, but there are more ambiguous rules in the forecasting industry. An official representative for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits trading on insider information of any form."