Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
